I'm skeptical whenever someone reaches the conclusion that Israel will be destroyed without detailing how that would actually happen. All I've heard here is that Hezbollah has a hundred thousand or more troops and would invade parts of Israel.
On the Israeli side the war would have to be offensive. This is because the Hezbollah missiles c…
I'm skeptical whenever someone reaches the conclusion that Israel will be destroyed without detailing how that would actually happen. All I've heard here is that Hezbollah has a hundred thousand or more troops and would invade parts of Israel.
On the Israeli side the war would have to be offensive. This is because the Hezbollah missiles capable of taking out infrastructure would have to be destroyed at the beginning of any war. That is why so many stealth aircraft have been ordered from the US. I also think this is the basis of US/Israeli military cooperation. The US is capable of a sustained carpet bombing campaign. Israel may not be able to conduct anything other than targeting of of individual sites.
As to a ground war, that would only happen after a sustained Israeli/American bombing campaign and Hezbollah loosening it's missiles.
Here the current war in Gaza shows us that we are well past the point where civilians are not targets. Even if the propaganda line that Hezbollah respects the rights of civilians were in fact true, it would be forced to try to disrupt the tranquility of the Israeli population by missile attacks on infrastructure in Tel Aviv.
Lastly does the Harris campaign understand what Netanyahu is doing? He obviously wants this war with Hezbollah. Her advisors know what is going on with the military build-up. Biden has enthusiastically enabled his political enemy- Bibi and declared himself to be a Zionist. Harris is not this senile. Biden can sabotage her candidacy by cooperating with the Israeli military in enabling an offensive start to this war.
So at some point she will have to either clip Bibi's wings by some definitive statement or watch herself be boxed into a corner.
Bibi has said to Congress that Israel is fighting a US war. The only thing that will stop him is the lack of US support.
Remember what happened to Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
She will not be elected if she can't find a way out of this Bibi trap.
Thanks for these thoughtful comments, Peter. I do feel like Kamala is already getting boxed into a corner. This genocide has opened the minds of a generation and they are ready to break with the Dems unless she guarantees a permanent ceasefire. I want her to do that, but I don't think she will win if she does. No idea how she can find a way out of this mess.
I have some thoughts here. Bibi's weakness is that he ignores and stonewalls the hostages. She could meet with them especially US hostages. Get in Bibi's backyard. One argument she could use for a ceasefire is that Hamas has been decimated and defeated, which the IDF claims it has almost accomplished, so we want our hostages out alive now before they die of starvation or some last ditch terrorist execution. She can also try to privately veto the start of the Israeli bombing campaign by questioning internally how this escalation is a defensive action. It's up to her advisors to start thinking along these lines.
These sound like great ideas. I like the idea of leveraging the hostages. Even just the fact that she keeps up the lie that Israel has a "right" to self defense is problematic. So, maybe she can leverage that too? Sadly, the best hope for a positive resolution may actually be a regional war that weakens Israel.
The problem with a regional war is that Israel has shown in Gaza it has no regard for civilian life. Civilians are clearly the target there. So a regional war will be a bloodbath for any and all civilians. If Hezbollah loosens its 150,000 missiles successfully the cities in Israel will be blown up and Israel will do the same thing it has done in Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. This bloodshed isn't what any sane person wants. I'm sure Harris understands this. If she just stands behind the position that an Israeli attack on Lebanon isn't defensive but offensive and can get the Pentagon to back off taking on the role of bombing Hezbollah back into the stone age to help out Bibi, she will have succeeded. Once Israel and the US start a preemptive bombing campaign to take out those missiles its all over for her and us. So I hope her advisors think this one through. I watch Bibi every day to see what he can and can't get away with. Right now he is moving soldiers to the north and the casualties are increasing. But he can't do anything major with bombing without US full support. If she wants to be President she will have to stop the escalation before it starts. Here's hoping.
I saw some reporting this morning saying that Netanyahu stated that the US gave him full support for war with Lebanon. Remains to be seen if this is true. I agree about the bloodshed. But how much longer can this be put off. I think the Palestinians realize they will be left with nothing if Israel is not stopped now. The far right does not want peace with the Palestinians; they want peace amongst themselves without the Palestinians existing.
I'm skeptical whenever someone reaches the conclusion that Israel will be destroyed without detailing how that would actually happen. All I've heard here is that Hezbollah has a hundred thousand or more troops and would invade parts of Israel.
On the Israeli side the war would have to be offensive. This is because the Hezbollah missiles capable of taking out infrastructure would have to be destroyed at the beginning of any war. That is why so many stealth aircraft have been ordered from the US. I also think this is the basis of US/Israeli military cooperation. The US is capable of a sustained carpet bombing campaign. Israel may not be able to conduct anything other than targeting of of individual sites.
As to a ground war, that would only happen after a sustained Israeli/American bombing campaign and Hezbollah loosening it's missiles.
Here the current war in Gaza shows us that we are well past the point where civilians are not targets. Even if the propaganda line that Hezbollah respects the rights of civilians were in fact true, it would be forced to try to disrupt the tranquility of the Israeli population by missile attacks on infrastructure in Tel Aviv.
Lastly does the Harris campaign understand what Netanyahu is doing? He obviously wants this war with Hezbollah. Her advisors know what is going on with the military build-up. Biden has enthusiastically enabled his political enemy- Bibi and declared himself to be a Zionist. Harris is not this senile. Biden can sabotage her candidacy by cooperating with the Israeli military in enabling an offensive start to this war.
So at some point she will have to either clip Bibi's wings by some definitive statement or watch herself be boxed into a corner.
Bibi has said to Congress that Israel is fighting a US war. The only thing that will stop him is the lack of US support.
Remember what happened to Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
She will not be elected if she can't find a way out of this Bibi trap.
Thanks for these thoughtful comments, Peter. I do feel like Kamala is already getting boxed into a corner. This genocide has opened the minds of a generation and they are ready to break with the Dems unless she guarantees a permanent ceasefire. I want her to do that, but I don't think she will win if she does. No idea how she can find a way out of this mess.
I have some thoughts here. Bibi's weakness is that he ignores and stonewalls the hostages. She could meet with them especially US hostages. Get in Bibi's backyard. One argument she could use for a ceasefire is that Hamas has been decimated and defeated, which the IDF claims it has almost accomplished, so we want our hostages out alive now before they die of starvation or some last ditch terrorist execution. She can also try to privately veto the start of the Israeli bombing campaign by questioning internally how this escalation is a defensive action. It's up to her advisors to start thinking along these lines.
These sound like great ideas. I like the idea of leveraging the hostages. Even just the fact that she keeps up the lie that Israel has a "right" to self defense is problematic. So, maybe she can leverage that too? Sadly, the best hope for a positive resolution may actually be a regional war that weakens Israel.
The problem with a regional war is that Israel has shown in Gaza it has no regard for civilian life. Civilians are clearly the target there. So a regional war will be a bloodbath for any and all civilians. If Hezbollah loosens its 150,000 missiles successfully the cities in Israel will be blown up and Israel will do the same thing it has done in Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. This bloodshed isn't what any sane person wants. I'm sure Harris understands this. If she just stands behind the position that an Israeli attack on Lebanon isn't defensive but offensive and can get the Pentagon to back off taking on the role of bombing Hezbollah back into the stone age to help out Bibi, she will have succeeded. Once Israel and the US start a preemptive bombing campaign to take out those missiles its all over for her and us. So I hope her advisors think this one through. I watch Bibi every day to see what he can and can't get away with. Right now he is moving soldiers to the north and the casualties are increasing. But he can't do anything major with bombing without US full support. If she wants to be President she will have to stop the escalation before it starts. Here's hoping.
I saw some reporting this morning saying that Netanyahu stated that the US gave him full support for war with Lebanon. Remains to be seen if this is true. I agree about the bloodshed. But how much longer can this be put off. I think the Palestinians realize they will be left with nothing if Israel is not stopped now. The far right does not want peace with the Palestinians; they want peace amongst themselves without the Palestinians existing.