In mid-June, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that was formally intended to bring a halt to the war and open a path for negotiations on a range of issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran, however, made clear that it would not proceed to any long-term deal unless the U.S. compelled Israel to end its war against Lebanon. Since the signing of the MOU, Israel has maneuvered to ensure its forces can remain entrenched in Lebanon and worked with the Trump administration to delink Hezbollah from the Iran deal. Hezbollah formally entered the war on March 2 and Iran has insisted that the ceasefire must apply not only to Iran, but to southern Lebanon as well. Israel and the U.S., however, embarked on an alternative path aimed at enlisting the Lebanese government as their local partner in a campaign aimed at disarming and dismantling Hezbollah.
A subsequent “framework,” signed on June 26, between Israel and Lebanon appears to have succeeded in laying the foundations. The text portrays Hezbollah as an illegal insurgent movement and enables Israeli forces to remain indefinitely in Lebanon until Lebanese Armed Forces enact the “successful disarmament of non-state armed groups and dismantlement of their infrastructure.” Only after this is accomplished, would Israeli occupation forces “progressively redeploy out of the Lebanese territory.”
As the U.S. and Iran continue indirect technical talks, there are mounting concerns in Tehran that Trump is simply using the negotiations to prepare for a resumption of the war. Tehran has also said that it will not stand idly by as Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon, pointing out that the MOU explicitly commits the U.S. to end the war.
Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill spoke with Amal Saad, a lecturer on international relations and politics at Cardiff University in the UK who is writing a book on Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance. In a wide-ranging discussion, Saad offers a comprehensive analysis of the U.S.-Israeli campaign to co-opt the Lebanese government into the war against Hezbollah. They also discuss Iran’s regional and global position in the post-October 7 world, and Saad explains why she believes another war on Iran is inevitable.
