“Waiting Mode”: After the Iran Ceasefire, Is a Gaza Deal on the Horizon?
Trump envoy Bishara Bahbah says a deal could come within days. Palestinian negotiators are skeptical.
For the first time in more than a month—and boosted by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel—there appears to be the beginnings of a renewed U.S. focus aimed at restarting negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza.
On Wednesday, ahead of a visit with NATO officials in the Hague, President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a Gaza deal could be reached soon. “I think great progress is being made on Gaza. Because of this attack that we made [against Iran], I think we’re going to have some very good news,” he said. Trump said that his special envoy Steve Witkoff had told him a Gaza deal was “very close.”
One of Trump’s envoys said in an interview Tuesday night that he believes an agreement between Israel and Hamas is within reach. “Since the Iran issue has ended, the current focus from Egyptian, Qatari, and American mediators is mainly focused on reaching a permanent ceasefire as soon as possible. God willing, a ceasefire could be achieved within days,” said Palestinian-American Bishara Bahbah, who is an informal envoy for the Trump administration. “I am optimistic.”
As the world’s attention focused on the Israeli-U.S. war against Iran over the past two weeks, Israel intensified its campaign of mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. The situation in the besieged enclave is more dire than at any point during the 20-month genocide. Dozens of Palestinians are gunned down on a daily basis as they embark on a perilous journey to secure some of the meager food rations, whose distribution the U.S. and Israel control with an iron fist.
While Bahbah sought to portray a sense of renewed momentum in a wide-ranging Arabic interview with Egypt’s Al Ghad television network, a source close to the Palestinian negotiating team told Drop Site that no senior Hamas leaders have met recently with Bahbah or other U.S. officials and that any optimism expressed by Trump’s envoy that does not include pressure on Israel to offer its own concessions is meaningless.
“There are some delegations in Cairo. But no one senior,” the source said. “Bahbah's trying to give the impression that something's going on based on personal conversations with some people, but the main decision makers are not there.”
Hamas official Taher Al Nunu said Wednesday there is “nothing new” in the negotiations. "With regard to the American position, we are increasingly confident that the United States is the only actor that can really exert pressure to stop this war completely," he told Al Araby.
Bahbah, who is currently in Cairo, did meet recently with Hamas official Ghazi Hamad. “Hamas has a strong understanding of the need to find a quick solution to the situation in Gaza,” Bahbah said.
While Hamad is a longtime member of Hamas, and has been the main point of contact with Bahbah, he does not have the authority to make any deals for the Islamic resistance movement. By the same token, Bahbah is not a U.S. government official and must clear any decisions or offers with Witkoff. “I am conveying Hamas's considerations to Mr. Witkoff and the U.S. administration,” he said. “I am also limited to what Witkoff allows me to do. I convey all the information to him, and the decision is his.”
Hamas has confirmed to Drop Site that it continues to engage with U.S, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators, though sources within the movement caution there have been no substantive steps made toward achieving a deal. Hamas’s position remains that it is Israel’s insistence on reserving the right to resume the genocide that is the main impediment to achieving an agreement. “If President Donald Trump truly wants to end the war, he can do so,” said Al Nunu. “He can impose this on Netanyahu and Israel, stop the aggression against the Palestinian people, call for a ceasefire, and begin comprehensive negotiations on all issues." In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Bahbah wrote, “The Israeli delegation has been called to come to Cairo” to restart ceasefire talks. “Hamas informed us that they are fully prepared to start negotiations now.”
An internal Hamas assessment of the current situation—which was circulated on Wednesday and obtained by Drop Site—asserted, “Trump is trying to capitalize on what happened in Iran to strike a deal with Gaza, and his recent statements about progress in the negotiations indicate this. Israel is talking about progress, but without agreeing to an end to the war.”
The assessment also said that Hamas believes the recent ambushes and killing of Israeli soldiers by armed Palestinian resistance fighters from Hamas’s Al Qassam Brigades and Islamic Jihad’s Saraya Al Quds are contributing to internal pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On Tuesday, seven Israeli soldiers were killed in the southern city of Khan Younis in a complex ambush involving an improvised explosive device.
“After the Khan Younis operation, voices rose within the [Israeli] opposition, the ruling coalition, and media and political circles regarding the need to stop the war, its futility, and the resulting losses, including increased casualties and the continued detention of prisoners inside Gaza,” the Hamas assessment determined.
Sources within the Palestinian negotiating team have told Drop Site over the past several weeks that, while there is still disagreement over an array of technical details, Hamas has indicated a willingness to make concessions on the timing of the release of Israeli captives, the number of captives released, and the duration of an initial phase of a ceasefire and other issues. This flexibility was reflected in ceasefire proposals drafted by Hamas in May, when it put in writing several amendments to its earlier positions after discussions with U.S. officials. Hamas also put forward an offer to immediately release all Israeli captives as part of an extended truce—known in Arabic as a hudna—of five to seven years. Israel rejected all of Hamas’s offers.
“Hamas months ago offered to release all Israeli hostages, dead or alive, in a single deal in exchange for a permanent ceasefire to end the war in the Gaza Strip,” said Bahbah. “However, this initiative by Hamas was rejected by Israel.”
Bahbah also confirmed that Hamas had agreed to relinquish all governing authority in Gaza to an independent technocratic committee of Palestinians and that Israel removed that term from a draft ceasefire proposal Hamas submitted to mediators in May. “[Hamas] were the ones who suggested this,” Bahbah said. “In one of the versions we wrote, this point was clearly stated. Unfortunately, [Israel] came and tried to sabotage it.” Bahbah said Hamas’s offer to give up power in Gaza is once again part of the renewed U.S. effort to reach a deal.
“We will welcome any new initiative,” said Al Nunu, the Hamas official, adding that any deal must be based on four points: “a complete ceasefire, withdrawal, rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, the entry of aid, and a [prisoner] swap agreement."
Bahbah said he believes both the U.S. and Hamas want to end the war. When asked if he believed that was Israel’s position, Bahbah replied, “God knows. It's in Netanyahu's interest to end it. Let's say he may not want to, but it's in his interest to end the war.”
Bishara Bahbah, The Mediators, and The Paths Forward
Born in Jerusalem, Bahbah is well known in Palestinian circles for his advocacy of a so-called two-state solution and his opposition to Hamas’s governance of Gaza. He once served as a foreign policy advisor to the late Palestine Liberation Organization chairman Yasser Arafat. It was Arafat’s widow, Bahbah said, that first introduced him to Hamad, the Hamas official with whom he has been meeting in Egypt this week. Bahbah was a lifelong Democrat until May 2024, when he declared his support for Trump in protest of the Biden administration’s facilitation of Israel’s war against Gaza.
Regardless of what Bahbah says in Cairo, the “red lines” for Hamas remain unchanged: Any deal must have a clearly defined path to a permanent end to the genocide and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Hamas has made clear to U.S. negotiators and regional mediators from Qatar and Egypt that it will not sign a deal unless there are firm, written U.S. guarantees included in a formal ceasefire deal signed by Israel that it will not be permitted to resume its military assault on Gaza after an initial two-month truce. As of now, “there is nothing in writing,” said the source close to the Palestinian negotiators. He described the current situation as “waiting mode.”
The caveat, the source said, is that if the U.S. agrees to guarantee—in writing—a long-term ceasefire and a commitment to prevent Israel from resuming the genocide, a deal to release all Israeli captives could be reached swiftly.
“The points of disagreement between the two sides aren't numerous. I can't go into what the points of disagreement are, but we're talking about a sentence and its rephrasing,” said Bahbah, who declined to offer specifics. “We've reached points, 85% of which have been accepted by both sides.”
Bahbah did not say whether the U.S. would pressure Netanyahu to formally accept the terms Hamas has indicated would lead to a deal. “As for Hamas's red lines, Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. Israel has tried, or is saying, to let us enter the 60 days and see what happens,” Bahbah said. “There is a conviction on the American side that 60 days is a long period during which a permanent solution to the war can be found and a peace process can begin.” He added: “We need to enter a ceasefire phase, then two permanent ceasefire phases, and then we need to begin the peace process.”
Bahbah said that he believes one central factor in Netanyahu’s refusal to make a long-term Gaza deal is the prospect of his governing coalition collapsing, because hard right members have stated they would leave unless the war of conquest and annihilation continues until all Palestinians are removed from Gaza. Bahbah said that with the Israeli Knesset scheduled to recess on July 27, there may be a window of opportunity for a deal that could be extended once the Israeli government is not in session.
“What's happening now is that the Israeli Knesset will be in session until the end of next month. During this period, if any agreement is reached, such as a permanent ceasefire, [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich and [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir will dismantle the government. This is not in Netanyahu's interest,” Bahbah said. “After the end of next month, the Knesset will adjourn for the summer, and thus, there's no possibility of dismantling the government from here until October. Netanyahu will be safe.”
Bahbah’s framing of Netanyahu’s domestic political considerations, however, requires disregarding the Israeli leader’s stated aim of conquering the entire Gaza Strip and implementing the removal of all Palestinians. In that sense, what Trump wants to see happen in Gaza remains the defining factor. “President Trump is a realistic man who understands the reality of the situation on the ground, and he is more aware than seasoned politicians to what they can and cannot do,” Bahbah said. When asked about Trump’s announcement in February—delivered as he stood next to Netanyahu in the White House—that the U.S. would seize Gaza and create a “Middle East Riviera,” Bahbah claimed it was a tactic to force Arab nations to come up with a plan of their own for Gaza.
“All the Arab countries then agreed and told him to leave [the Palestinians] where they are and they will pay for Gaza's reconstruction. So he got what he wanted,” Bahbah said. “So the proposal was just like how someone would attack the hive and cause all the bees to rush.”
While Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have called their vision for erasing Gaza of all Palestinians “Trump’s plan,” Bahbah claimed this would not happen. “There will not be, nor will it be accepted, that any country, person, or organization in the world displaces Palestinians from their lands.”
The Recent Status Quo: No Ceasefire Talks and Ongoing Massacres
Bahbah’s comments come as Israel’s extermination campaign in Gaza has entered a horrific new phase. For the past month, starving Palestinians have been shot at, shelled, and attacked with tanks and quadcopters as they try to get food to feed their families at militarized so-called aid distribution points in remote parts of Gaza. The scenes are so surreal that references are increasingly being made to fictional dystopias like The Hunger Games or Squid Game to capture the horror.
Over the past four weeks, at least 549 Palestinians have been killed and over 4,066 injured in aid massacres, according to the Gaza health ministry.
But despite the daily aid massacres, the White House and State Department on Friday authorized a $30 million USAID grant to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an Israeli and U.S.-backed group, which now operates four distribution points inside Israeli military zones in Gaza—three of which are in Rafah. Possible additional grants of $30 million could be dispersed on a monthly basis, according to Reuters.
The new “aid distribution" system first began operating on March 27 through the GHF. A trickle of aid trucks are also allowed in through the U.N. and humanitarian groups. But the amount of aid being distributed is not nearly enough to stave off mass starvation, according to the UN, and Israeli troops have been using the chaotic scenes as an excuse to indiscriminately fire on crowds.
“Every day, more than 120 people are injured and between 20 and 30 are martyred [seeking aid],” Eyad Amawi, a representative of the Gaza Relief Committee and a coordinator for local NGOs, told Drop Site. “There is indiscriminate fire from drones and military vehicles near the American distribution centers. I have noticed that many of the wounded are starving and thirsty. They have gone out in the hopes of receiving some food but got nothing. This has made the situation even more dire, especially for those who walked 15 to 20 kilometers in desperation to obtain even a small portion of food. The tragedy is growing more complex.”
The new system came nearly three months into a full spectrum blockade imposed by Israel on Gaza. No food, medical supplies, fuel, or other humanitarian supplies have been allowed in since March 2, bringing the entire population of Gaza to the brink of famine. “The occupation continues to strongly restrict the entry of sufficient aid trucks, allowing no more than 50 trucks every 48 hours and insists that these trucks be left on the roadside where hungry people attack them in chaos. There are no systems, no distribution plans, and no order,” Amawi added. “Hunger has reached so many of us that people feel they have no choice but to risk everything and head toward these deadly distribution sites—fully aware that doing so may cost them their lives.”
The level of desperation in Gaza has reached extreme levels. Hamas officials are not immune from this reality. All members of Hamas’s political leadership currently outside of Gaza have had family members killed in Israel’s war. Several Hamas officials have described to Drop Site the pressure they are under from Palestinians in Gaza to end the genocide and make a deal. They have also said that they do not see themselves as responsible only for Hamas’s future, but for that of the Palestinian liberation struggle and the achievement of an independent state. They believe that capitulating to Israeli demands to disarm Gaza, and to sign a deal that permits the resumption of the genocide after the release of more Israeli captives, would amount to a death sentence for the Palestinian cause.
Trump Is the Only One With the Power to End Israel’s War
For much of the past month, Qatar has been the main mediator maintaining contact with Israeli and U.S. officials. Palestinian sources told Drop Site that delegates in Doha have been increasing their pressure on Hamas to agree to a temporary ceasefire on the condition that verbal, not written, assurances would be made by Witkoff—specifically, that the U.S. would ensure that a temporary ceasefire remained intact as negotiations for a permanent end to the war continued.
Hamas remained firm in its demand that all terms be put in writing, citing the breaking of a previous verbal commitment made by Witkoff in negotiations to free dual U.S.-Israeli citizen and IDF soldier Edan Alexander from Gaza. According to Hamas, the U.S. promised it would compel Israel to lift its full spectrum blockade of Gaza two days after Alexander’s release and that Trump would call for an immediate ceasefire and serious negotiations for a permanent end to the war. That did not happen.
Nonetheless, Bahbah claimed that Alexander’s release in May “actually led to goodwill from the Americans toward Hamas.” He said, “We couldn't have reached the stage we're at now without the release of Alexander. Any ceasefire agreement agreed upon at this stage includes a key factor, which is the U.S. president's guarantee of Netanyahu's adherence to the ceasefire.”
Bahbah added that the deal with the U.S. to release Alexander “led to great anger in Israeli circles, and on this basis, they increased pressure on the Gaza Strip as a result of their anger at the Americans for having made an agreement behind Netanyahu's back.”
Last week, Egyptian mediators actively re-entered the negotiation process when they reached out to officials from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to discuss a proposal for the timing of the release of Israeli captives should a temporary deal be reached. Israel wanted ten living Israeli captives released within the first seven days of a deal. Hamas proposed releasing the ten captives in three stages over a 60-day period to ensure that Israel did not resume the war. The Egyptians relayed a proposal for the the release of eight on the first day and the other two on day 60.
While Hamas said it was reviewing the idea, Palestinian sources told Drop Site the issue is irrelevant outside the framework of a deal that addresses Hamas’s central demand that the deal leads to a permanent ceasefire.
Whether Bahbah’s recent comments reflect a coming renewed push by the Trump administration for a Gaza deal, wishful thinking, or are aimed at pressuring Hamas, it is plausible that formal negotiations will soon resume. “We're waiting for the Israeli delegation to arrive,” Bahbah said.
“Regardless of the United States' attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, I believe the American president wants to be a man of peace, and that after resolving the problem in Gaza, he will be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize,” said Bahbah. “There is a commitment from the American government, President Trump and Mr. Witkoff to find a solution for Gaza and a ceasefire. They do not want to see the war in Gaza continue and they want the people of Gaza to live like human beings.”
Many Palestinians would disagree with Bahbah’s assessment, particularly in the context of the mass killing campaign unleashed on Gaza over the past three months, combined with what Hamas has seen as Witkoff’s dishonest brokering in the ceasefire negotiation process.
In Bahbah’s interview with Egyptian television, he addressed a wide range of events that have unfolded in recent months and, in several instances, he spoke in blunt terms about Israel’s sabotaging of negotiations, including its blowing up of the January agreement pushed into place by President-elect Trump.
“It happened because, first of all, Netanyahu didn't intend for there to be a permanent ceasefire agreement,” Bahbah said. “It also happened because Hamas provoked Israel with parades during the release of the Israelis. So, the Israelis say, ‘You are humiliating us and you are at our mercy.’ From this standpoint, Israel found a pretext to withdraw based on these ‘provocations.’” He added that, even if Hamas had not held public ceremonies to hand over Israeli captives, Netanyahu “would have found something else to prevent the cessation of hostilities.”
Despite the Trump administration’s continuation of full support for Israel’s war of annihilation in Gaza and its relentless attacks on the occupied West Bank, Bahbah said he still believes Trump represents the best hope for an end to the war. “I am convinced that President Trump wants to find a permanent solution to the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and through it, the Arab-Israeli issue,” Bahbah said.
Bahbah predicted that Trump will ultimately advocate for a Palestinian state, an objective he does not believe a Democratic president would be capable of achieving. “If we can't secure American support for the establishment of a Palestinian state from now until 2028, we might as well just dream, because no Democratic official can tell Israel to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state. The only American official who can tell Israel to accept a Palestinian state is President Trump alone,” he said. “The only person Netanyahu fears is Trump, the only leader in the world.”
Nearly every move made under the Trump administration since taking office indicates that Bahbah is embracing a fantasy. Trump’s foreign policy team is stacked with Zionists, including the U.S. ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee who has said there are no such people as Palestinians and no such place as the West Bank. Trump himself uses the term “Palestinian” as a slur to attack his political opponents. He has also facilitated Netanyahu’s campaign of mass arson and murder across the region.
In his first term in office, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there and recognized Israeli “sovereignty” over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. He also put forward what he called the “Deal of the Century,” which would have officially recognized the Israeli annexation of nearly 90% of the Palestinian land it illegally occupies in the West Bank in return for a tiny Palestinian pseudo-state.
At the same time, Trump has shown a willingness to publicly criticize Israel, as he did on Tuesday when he publicly blasted Israel for violating the Iran ceasefire deal soon after it was announced. Whether there is any actual divergence of position on Gaza between Trump and Netanyahu is an open question, more so in the aftermath of the Iran attacks, which Trump coordinated closely with Netanyahu. “We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before,” Trump boasted after the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites June 22.
In the end, the defining motivator for how Trump proceeds on Gaza—and Palestine in general—may have little to do with geopolitics or humanitarianism or even strategy and everything to do with ego and pursuing his obsessive desire to match what he views as former President Barack Obama’s undeserved award for the Nobel Prize.
“I should have gotten it four or five times,” Trump said the day before the U.S. bombed Iran. “They won’t give me a Nobel Peace Prize, because they only give it to liberals.” As with many of Trump’s assertions, this one is false. Notorious war criminal Henry Kissinger, a key player in the Nixon administration, was among the prize’s previous winners.
Sharif Abdel Kouddous contributed to this report.
Thank you guys for finally clarifying that the US State Dept is funding US mercenaries murdering Palestinians. I’ve been begging for this information to be brought to the American people to show it’s not just Israel murdering Palestinians. It’s the US funding mercenaries willingly slaughtering starving innocent men, women and children. 🙏
Pure evil.